Local Predictability and Collective Fidelity in LLM-Agent Societies
Read the original on arXiv AI →The paper investigates whether compact surrogate models can reduce the cost of simulating large language model (LLM) societies while still reproducing their collective behavior. Using 9,455 published trajectories and new opinion‑dynamics experiments, it finds that incorporating neighbor information improves individual predictions across all 16 public‑data settings and enhances pooled collective forecasts on held‑out questions, though the collective gains vary with transfer conditions. Additional tests on 24 new statements do not confirm earlier contrasting history effects, and Qwen shows benefit from history only after three observed rounds, underscoring the need for direct collective validation, explicit limits on available observations, and comparisons with simple baselines.
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