arXiv Machine Learning By Reuben Vandeventer, David Imrem, David J. Wild

Language Is an Insufficient Substrate for Quantitative Reasoning, and Consequential Domains Need Large Quantitative Models

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The article argues that large language models (LLMs) are inadequate for consequential quantitative tasks such as pricing, risk assessment, and medical triage because language is a lossy representation of quantitative data that cannot be reversed. It formalizes this limitation as a property of the training representation rather than model capacity and identifies three essential properties—reproducibility, traceable lineage to source records, and calibrated uncertainty—that language substrates cannot provide. The authors propose a new class of models, Large Quantitative Models (LQMs), designed to meet these requirements.

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arXiv AI
2d ago

Verbalized and Internal Probabilities Are Coupled in Large Language Models

The paper investigates the relationship between a large language model’s internal probability distribution and its verbalized confidence statements. By systematically manipulating training and in‑context data, the authors show that both internal and verbalized probabilities are influenced by distributional and asserted uncertainty in the data. They find that verbalized probabilities align with internal ones beyond what would be expected if they tracked the same sources independently, indicating that verbalized confidence can serve as a probe of the model’s internal distribution.

By Sinead Williamson, Jiaxuan Li, Nick Foti, Russ Webb, Masha Fedzechkina