arXiv:2606. 09577v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as code generators, where silently wrong programs pose real safety and reliability risks.
By Yuling Shi, Caiqi Zhang, Yuexian Li, Haopeng Wang, Yeheng Chen, Nigel Collier, Xiaodong Gu
arXiv:2608. 14659v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models for code generation often produce incorrect solutions without reliable indicators of failure.
By Pranav Rakasi, Maanas Lalwani, Arnav Srivastava, Arya Palanivel, Tinuade Adeleke, Ruizhe Li, Sean Wu
The paper introduces Label-Confidence-Aware Uncertainty Quantification (LCA-UQ), a method that uses Pointwise Kullback-Leibler divergence to align global entropy from multiple stochastic samples with the local confidence of a candidate answer. By bridging this gap, LCA-UQ improves the reliability and stability of uncertainty assessments in natural language generation. Experiments on popular LLMs and NLP datasets show that label sources significantly influence classification and that LCA-UQ outperforms existing uncertainty estimation approaches.
By Qinhong Lin, Yinglun Feng, Yuhao Zhang, Zhongliang Yang, Linna Zhou
As the chain-of-thought reasoning capabilities of large language models improve, evaluating and calibrating their reasoning confidence is becoming increasingly important for quantifying the uncertaint...
The paper presents a geometric framework for quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) at both the prompt and answer levels. By modeling a prompt-conditioned semantic distribution in answer embedding space and using archetypal analysis on multiple sampled answers, the method estimates distribution entropy for prompt-level uncertainty and atypicality for individual answer reliability. Experiments demonstrate comparable or superior performance to existing techniques on short-form QA datasets and notably better results on medical datasets where hallucinations pose critical risks.
By Edward Phillips, Sean Wu, Soheila Molaei, Danielle Belgrave, Anshul Thakur, David Clifton
The paper introduces Divergent Token Confidence (DTC), a method that estimates large language model confidence by counting tokens where two models strongly disagree during decoding. DTC uses Jensen-Shannon divergence between next-token distributions along the same reasoning trajectory and shows a near-negative correlation with answer accuracy. Experiments on multiple model families and six mathematical benchmarks demonstrate that DTC improves calibration over traditional probability-based and verbalized baselines, achieving lower expected calibration errors in both white-box and black-box settings.
By Feiyang Li, Shengjing Liu, Qi Zhan, Sijie Cheng, Weiqing Wang, Hongwen Chen, Yuxuan Yang, Wen Wang, Yile Wang, Hui Huang