arXiv Machine Learning By Hare Krishna

Forecasting Corpus-Sampling Disagreement in Masked Text Reconstruction

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The paper investigates how much a masked‑text reconstruction predictor’s outputs would differ if a second corpus were collected from the same population. Using a smoothed predictor based on token‑pair counts, the authors derive a first‑order formula for expected disagreement between predictors trained on two independent corpora, accounting for document length, random context counts, and token‑offset correlations. Experiments on TinyStories, WikiText‑103, and CNN/DailyMail show that increasing corpus size from 512 to 2,048 chunks of 64 tokens reduces disagreement only modestly (5–40 %), and that forecast accuracy improves with larger reference corpora and a source‑split jackknife correction. whyItMatters:"The study provides a practical method to estimate how much predictor outputs would change with additional data, informing decisions about data collection and model robustness in masked‑text reconstruction tasks."

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