arXiv AI By Yinuo Xu, Yuwei Liang, Jianjie Cheng, Meng Wang, Yongcan Yu, Shuo Lu, Jian Liang

DualStake: Dual-Path Confidence Calibration in Deep Research Agents

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DualStake introduces a dual-path confidence calibration for deep research agents, adding step confidence elicitation after each retrieval step. The method shows that evidence confidence (E-Conf) after the final retrieval provides a stronger uncertainty signal than answer confidence (A-Conf), and that A-Conf is largely influenced by E-Conf. By applying margin‑clipped, confidence‑dependent stake rewards, DualStake aligns both E-Conf and A-Conf with answer correctness, improving calibration across multiple QA benchmarks without harming accuracy.

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