Cyber-Financial Contagion: Modeling the Propagation of an AI Vendor Compromise Through the Banking System
Read the original on arXiv AI →The paper examines how a breach of a single AI vendor—used by banks for fraud screening, credit decisions, AML triage, customer analytics, and internal support—can spread through operational, informational, and financial links, ultimately causing losses that resemble a traditional banking crisis. It introduces a four‑layer heterogeneous network linking AI vendors, banks, interbank exposures, and customer accounts, and presents CFC‑Prop, a stochastic epidemic‑and‑clearing model that reproduces heavy‑tailed loss distributions and sensitivity to patch latency on a synthetic dataset of 60 vendors, 220 banks, and 1,400 interbank exposures. Additionally, the authors develop CFC‑GNN, an early‑warning graph‑based model that predicts high‑cascade‑risk vendors with AUROC 0.82 and AUPRC 0.60, and they release all code, data, and scripts for reproducibility.
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