arXiv AI By Yueer Pan, Yuexi Pan

Correctness Conditioning as Selection in Chain-of-Thought Faithfulness Evaluation

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The paper investigates how restricting chain‑of‑thought faithfulness evaluation to only correctly answered instances alters the measured population. Using a seven‑variable structural causal model, the authors derive an exact expression for the observed gap and distinguish between difficulty confounding and shortcut‑induced collider bias. A review of 18 papers and empirical evaluation on arithmetic tasks reveal positive selection gaps, with the GLM‑5.3 run showing a +7.4 percentage‑point increase and a pooled analysis yielding an odds ratio of 1.70.

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