Chance-Constrained Belief-Space Maneuver Planning for Autonomous Collision Avoidance Under Uncertainty

The paper presents a chance-constrained belief-space planning framework for autonomous collision avoidance in low Earth orbit. It models uncertain orbital states as Gaussian beliefs and uses a Monte Carlo tree search to decide whether to wait for better tracking data or to execute a maneuver before the time of closest approach. Experiments on 96 scenarios from NASA’s dataset show that the planner can avoid maneuvers in about 40% of cases while keeping collision risk below the threshold, with performance heavily dependent on tracking quality and cadence.

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