arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 19

Evaluating and improving crop-yield forecasting methods during extreme drought

The study evaluates crop‑yield forecasting methods for the 2012 Midwestern US drought, comparing non‑deep learning machine learning models with a deep learning model (VITA) using 16 meteorological predictors. It highlights challenges such as distributional dissimilarity between training and test data, spatial and temporal sparsity, and demonstrates that sample weighting and feature selection improve non‑deep learning models but not VITA. The work contrasts deep versus non‑deep learning approaches and shows how modifications can mitigate issues arising from extreme drought conditions.

By Shrey Gupta, Yi Ming, George Mohler
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 18

Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Language Models

arXiv:2407. 00890v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper presents a comparative analysis evaluating the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) against traditional macro time series forecasting approaches.

By Andrea Carriero, Davide Pettenuzzo, Shubhranshu Shekhar
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 13

Forking-Sequences: Statistically and Computationally Efficient Multi-Horizon Forecasting with Reduced Volatility

arXiv:2510. 04487v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While accuracy is a critical requirement for time series forecasting, an equally important desideratum is reasonable forecast volatility across forecast creation dates (FCDs).

By Willa Potosnak, Malcolm Wolff, Mengfei Cao, Ruijun Ma, Tatiana Konstantinova, Dmitry Efimov, Michael W. Mahoney, Boris Oreshkin, Kin G. Olivares