arXiv AI By Helen Jenne, Davis Brown, Jesse He, Henry Kvinge

Beyond Selected Breakthroughs: Evaluating Language Models on Randomly Sampled Mathematical Conjectures

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The paper introduces OpenConjecture, a dataset of mathematical conjectures from arXiv papers since February 2026, and evaluates frontier GPT models on 200 randomly sampled conjectures. The models generate candidate solutions for about 60% of the conjectures, with counterexamples occurring roughly 1.3 times more often than proofs. The study examines solution novelty, citation practices, and fidelity to the original statements, finding that some solutions deviate from authors’ intent and that many proofs closely follow existing results, though some exhibit moderate novelty.

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