Beyond Local Surprise: Grounded Dialogue as Selective Belief Revision under Referential Uncertainty

The paper investigates how listeners decide to preserve or revise their understanding when a speaker refers to a scene they cannot see. It introduces a data‑driven framework for turn‑by‑turn preserve/revise decisions and compares four theory‑driven revision strategies. The study finds that a mismatch‑driven policy destabilizes grounding, while an uncertainty‑sensitive policy balances preservation and revision, leading to coherent understanding that aligns with conceptual pact theory.

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