arXiv:2603.04275v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: We introduce inference methods for score decompositions, which partition scoring functions for predictive assessment into three interpretable...
By Timo Dimitriadis, Marius Puke
arXiv:2512. 18390v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Organizations often have an incumbent predictive model in production when new data sources become available.
By Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Christophe P\'erignon, S\'ebastien Saurin, Flore Sentenac
arXiv:2606. 04342v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-step time series forecasting (MSF) is commonly evaluated using point-wise error metrics such as mean squared error (MSE), implicitly treating the conditional mean as a sufficient target.
By Riku Green, Zahraa S. Abdallah, Telmo M Silva Filho
The paper introduces loss‑conditioned state execution, a model‑agnostic technique that decides whether to apply a world model’s proposed state change or keep the current state based on whether the change reduces downstream loss. It formalizes state movability as the existence of a loss‑reducing feasible correction and constructs loss‑specific proposals from predictive distributions, executing them only when a groupwise lower confidence bound on loss improvement is positive. Experiments on forecasting and dynamics benchmarks show that the method accepts updates for a subset of cases, achieving lower bounded loss than persistence or always executing the proposal, and highlights that event predictability and loss‑based decisions must be evaluated separately.
By Jintao Xu, Zhengyu Chen, Ben Zhang, Yongzhi Qi, Jianshen Zhang
Large language models (LLMs) can synthesize financial narratives but may express high confidence when evidence is sparse, stale, or contradictory. This failure is especially consequential in forecasting, where filings, news, prices, volume, and technical signals can disagree.
arXiv:2605. 06340v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Continuous post-deployment compliance audits, mandated by emerging regulations such as the EU AI Act and Digital Services Act, create a class of strategic gaming distinct from the one-shot input/output gaming studied in prior work.
By Florian A. D. Burnat, Brittany I. Davidson