arXiv Computation and Language By Louise Yorke

Behind Aggregate Scores: What Systematically Varying Arena-Hard's LLM Judge Reveals

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The paper investigates the reliability of LLM judges in the Arena-Hard benchmark, showing that aggregate scores can mask significant variability in individual verdicts. By running GPT‑4.1 across 500 prompts under eight different judge configurations and repeating each setup, the authors find that small changes—whether in temperature, criteria, or instruction framing—can shift win/tie/loss outcomes on up to 28% of prompts and alter aggregate scores by several points. The study concludes that stable aggregate scores do not guarantee repeatable individual judgments, and recommends that evaluations report both aggregate results and prompt‑level agreement.

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