arXiv AI By Hafsa Akbar, Daniel Platnick, Marjan Alirezaie, Hossein Rahnama

Bayesian Belief Layer for Controllable Opinion Dynamics in LLM Agents

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The paper introduces Bayesian Chronicle Agents (BCA), a lightweight belief layer that separates an LLM agent’s internal stance from its outward speech. Each stance is represented as a probability updated via a single Bayesian step per utterance, with a single prior‑strength parameter κ controlling stubbornness. By sweeping κ, the authors generate three controllable opinion‑dynamics regimes—consensus, persistent disagreement, and committed‑minority influence—matching Friedkin–Johnsen theory and demonstrating recoverable, auditable belief states across models.

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