arXiv Machine Learning By Amin Vakhshouri

A trust layer for fast pedestal-stability surrogates: calibrated error bars, out-of-distribution alarms and few-shot recalibration

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The paper presents a model‑agnostic trust layer for machine‑learning surrogates of linear peeling‑ballooning stability, adding calibrated error bars, out‑of‑distribution alarms, and few‑shot recalibration. Experiments on JET‑like equilibria, BOUT++ surrogates, and SPARC/DIII‑D data show that the trust layer maintains nominal coverage, flags unseen cases, and restores accuracy with minimal additional simulations. The approach enables rapid, reliable stability screening for new fusion device designs.

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arXiv AI
Sep 25

Revalidation Beats Stateful Routing for Scientific Surrogates Under Distribution Shift

The study introduces RegimeShift‑Surrogates, a streaming benchmark that tests surrogate models across eight tasks and multiple regimes. It compares revalidation—choosing the model with lowest current‑window validation loss—to stateful adaptive controllers and finds that revalidation consistently outperforms stateful methods, achieving lower mean log regret in most task‑scenario combinations. The results suggest that fresh validation evidence is more valuable than carrying over past evidence when dealing with distribution shifts.

By Harshil Lodhiya