The paper introduces Expected‑Severity‑Risk (ESR), a new objective for selecting questions in proactive medical dialogue that prioritizes reducing the expected severity of diagnostic errors rather than merely uncertainty. ESR uses population statistics to marginalize over possible answers and distills its rankings into a prefix‑only language policy, enabling deployment without teacher‑side risk computation. Experiments on DDxPlus show ESR cuts high‑severity diagnostic misses by 29.5% and boosts accuracy while adding only 0.14 extra questions per dialogue.
By Chenxuan Li, Xinrong Chen, Luyan Zhang, Peidong Jia, Runfan Zheng, Zhongyu Zhao, Xuecheng Shang, Peixing Wan
arXiv:2607. 28677v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLM now pass medical licensing examinations and, in curated cases, can rival physicians at diagnostic reasoning.
By Shayndhan Sivanathan, Shravan Nageswaran, Mehdi Zadem, Ryaan Sultan, Nicolas von Mallinckrodt, Max Solovyev, Alexey Matyushkin, Sumon Sadhu, Gabriele C DeLuca, Sanjeeva Jeyaretna, James Hillis, Manoj Ramachandran, Prakash Jayakumar
arXiv:2608. 09080v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved strong performance in medical question answering and clinical reasoning tasks.
By Maryam Tahermazandarani, Adnan Mahmood, Fahmida Islam, Quan Z. Sheng
arXiv:2603. 24481v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Miscalibrated confidence scores are a practical obstacle to deploying AI in clinical settings.
By John Ray B. Martinez
arXiv:2606. 09030v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Clinical early warning systems built on electronic health records, in which clinical observations are recorded as irregularly sampled medical time series (ISMTS), must deliver both calibrated risk scores for patient triage and interpretable rationales that clinicians can verify.
By Hyeongwon Jang, Gyouk Chu, Changhun Kim, Joonhyung Park, Hangyul Yoon, Eunho Yang
arXiv:2607. 15280v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sequential diagnosis requires balancing diagnostic accuracy against resource costs through iterative information gathering.
By Shaoting Tan, Ning Liu, Yuntao Du, Shuyue Wei, Wu Shuai, Qian Li, Yanyu Xu, Wei Zhang, Lizhen Cui, Haitao Yuan
arXiv:2606.09030v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Clinical early warning systems built on irregularly sampled medical time series (ISMTS) from electronic health records must deliver continuou...
By Hyeongwon Jang, Gyouk Chu, Changhun Kim, Hangyul Yoon, Jeonguk Lee, Eunho Yang, Joonhyung Park
arXiv:2509.19375v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Large language models are increasingly used for clinical text classification, where overconfident misclassifications can directly affect pati...
By Mridul Sharma, Adeetya Patel, Zaneta D' Souza, Samira Abbasgholizadeh Rahimi, Siva Reddy, Sreenath Madathil
ConsultMind is an uncertainty‑aware framework that automates diagnostic consultation by updating disorder posteriors after each patient response and using posterior uncertainty to guide inquiry and diagnosis. It builds on AutoDisym, a pipeline that constructs a Disorder–Symptom Bayesian Network (DSBN) from diagnostic knowledge and clinical narratives. Across psychiatry, respiratory medicine, fever clinics, and public datasets, AutoDisym produces high‑quality DSBNs and ConsultMind improves diagnostic accuracy and explanation quality, achieving up to 22.15‑point gains in Top‑1 accuracy and 37.89‑point gains in Top‑3 accuracy.
By Xiao Sun, Yuming Yang, Yun Chen, Jiang Zhong, Junnan Zhu, Xinyi Jiang, Haoyang Zeng, Ruirui Chen, Yining Wang, Xinyu Zhou, Rong Tang, Kaiwen Wei
arXiv:2607. 23290v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Rare diseases collectively affect an estimated 3.
By Xi Chen, Hongru Zhou, Shiyu Feng, Hanyu Zhou, Huahui Yi, Rongsheng Wang, Tiancheng He, Kun Wang, Pingping Liu, Qiankun Li, Sicheng Lin, Huiying Ou, Xiaohong Zheng, Tianying Zang, Zhuohang Wu, Leheng Jiang, Kexin Cao, Wenhan Zhang, ChengYi Li, Zhiyang Wang, Songlin Li, Benyou Wang, Ningbei Yin, Shaoting Zhang, Weili Fu, Jian Li, Kang Li
The paper introduces Debate-Mixture-of-Agents (DMoA), a multi‑agent framework that structures role‑based interactions to mimic iterative diagnostic reasoning in clinical settings. Evaluated on 297 rare disease cases and 1,719 challenging cases, DMoA outperformed a GPT‑4o baseline, improving most likely diagnosis accuracy by 10.21 percentage points and safety rate by 11.36 percentage points. Ablation studies and further analyses revealed that these gains stem from the structured workflow rather than merely adding more models or longer outputs, and that performance benefits are influenced by the chosen structure, base model strength, and token budget.
By Chang Xia, Leilei Ouyang, Huimin Wang, Yong Zhao, Kang Li
The paper introduces the first benchmark for evaluating confidence estimation in large language models during multi‑turn medical consultations, combining three types of medical data and an information sufficiency gradient to capture how confidence and correctness evolve as evidence accumulates. Experiments with 27 methods reveal that token‑level and consistency‑level confidence approaches are limited by medical data, and that medical reasoning must be judged on both diagnostic accuracy and information completeness. Building on these findings, the authors propose MedConf, a retrieval‑augmented, linguistically grounded self‑assessment framework that aligns patient information with supporting, missing, and contradictory relations, producing interpretable confidence estimates that outperform existing methods across multiple datasets and LLMs.
By Zhiyao Ren, Yibing Zhan, Siyuan Liang, Guozheng Ma, Baosheng Yu, Dacheng Tao