Posted by Urs Köster, Software Engineer, Google Research Time series problems are ubiquitous, from forecasting weather and traffic patterns to understanding economic trends. Bayesian approaches start with an assumption about the data's patterns (prior probability), collecting evidence (e.
Posted by Rajat Sen and Yichen Zhou, Google Research Time-series forecasting is ubiquitous in various domains, such as retail, finance, manufacturing, healthcare and natural sciences. In retail use cases, for example, it has been observed that improving demand forecasting accuracy can meaningfully reduce inventory costs and increase revenue.
Posted by Lizao (Larry) Li, Software Engineer, and Rob Carver, Research Scientist, Google Research Accurate weather forecasts can have a direct impact on people’s lives, from helping make routine decisions, like what to pack for a day’s activities, to informing urgent actions, for example, protecting people in the face of hazardous weather conditions. The importance of accurate and timely weather forecasts will only increase as the climate changes.
arXiv:2603. 15802v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In many time series forecasting settings, the target time series is accompanied by exogenous covariates, such as promotions and prices in retail demand; temperature in energy load; calendar and holiday indicators for traffic or sales; and grid load or fuel costs in electricity pricing.
arXiv:2606. 27711v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a neural network-based framework for learning time series estimators through a process we term decision-theoretic pretraining.
arXiv:2606. 09473v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic forecasters are increasingly learned, yet the baselines they are compared against are often weak or omitted.
arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
An intuitive introduction to reasoning with uncertainty, from directed Bayesian networks to undirected Markov networks and weighted logical rules. The post Bayesian Networks and Markov Networks: An Intuitive Guide to Structured Uncertainty appeared first on Towards Data Science .
arXiv:2606. 28670v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce MACROCAST, a lightweight Time Series Foundation Model (TSFM) for real-time macroeconomic forecasting.
arXiv:2602. 16864v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time series (TS) modeling has come a long way from early statistical, mainly linear, approaches to the current trend in TS foundation models.
arXiv:2607. 24892v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Text-conditioned time-series forecasting predicts a series from both its numerical history and natural-language context, allowing forecasts to account for events and constraints that the past alone cannot reveal.
arXiv:2606. 27286v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mechanistic epidemiological models are widely used to support infectious disease forecasting and public-health decision making.
Posted by Nishant Jain, Pre-doctoral Researcher, and Pradeep Shenoy, Research Scientist, Google Research The constantly changing nature of the world around us poses a significant challenge for the development of AI models. Often, models are trained on longitudinal data with the hope that the training data used will accurately represent inputs the model may receive in the future.