arXiv Machine Learning

Machine-Precision Prediction of Low-Dimensional Chaotic Systems from Noise-Free Data

arXiv:2507. 09652v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Low-dimensional chaotic systems such as the Lorenz-63 model are commonly used to benchmark system-agnostic methods for learning dynamics from data.

arXiv AI
Jun 10

Divide-and-Conquer Modeling for the CTF-4-Science Lorenz Benchmark

arXiv:2606. 10084v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This work presents a divide-and-conquer modeling strategy for the CTF-4-Science Lorenz benchmark, which evaluates chaotic-system prediction across twelve hidden scores and five scenario families: clean forecasting, noisy reconstruction, noisy-input forecasting, few-shot learning, and parametric generalization.

By Shundong Li
arXiv AI
Sep 10

Adaptive Nonlinear Vector Autoregression: Robust Forecasting for Noisy Chaotic Time Series

The paper introduces a data‑adaptive nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) model that replaces fixed polynomial or random feature maps with a shallow, trainable multilayer perceptron (MLP). By jointly training the MLP and a linear readout via gradient‑based optimization, the model learns data‑driven nonlinearities while maintaining a simple readout structure, improving scalability in high‑dimensional settings. Experiments on several chaotic systems, both noise‑free and synthetically noisy, show that this adaptive NVAR outperforms standard NVAR, a leaky echo state network (ESN), and a hybrid ESN in predictive accuracy, demonstrating robust forecasting under noisy conditions.

By Sherkhon Azimov, Susana Lopez-Moreno, Eric Dolores-Cuenca, Sieun Lee, Jae-Il Kwon, Sangil Kim
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 7

Scientific Machine Learning of Chaotic Systems Learns Reduced-Order Equations for Neural Populations

arXiv:2507. 03631v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Extracting interpretable mathematical models from complex dynamical systems is difficult, especially for chaotic dynamics observed with noisy experimental data.

By Anthony G. Chesebro, David Hofmann, Vaibhav Dixit, Earl K. Miller, Richard H. Granger, Alan Edelman, Christopher V. Rackauckas, Lilianne R. Mujica-Parodi, Helmut H. Strey
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 7

Second-order consistency for learning chaotic dynamics via randomized Jacobian matching

The paper introduces a method called model‑constrained randomized Jacobian matching to enforce second‑order consistency when learning chaotic dynamical systems. By comparing Jacobians at randomly perturbed inputs, the approach implicitly penalises Hessian mismatch without computing full Hessian tensors, achieving $O(d^2)$ memory cost. Experiments on Lorenz 63 and Lorenz 96 show that this second‑order supervision reduces invariant‑measure error, improves Lyapunov‑spectrum accuracy, and avoids spurious attractors that plague first‑order methods.

By Shinhoo Kang, Hai V. Nguyen, Tan Bui-Thanh