arXiv Machine Learning

Convolution Smoothed Quantile Regression for XGBoost

arXiv:2608. 15290v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The increasing availability of large and complex datasets across many scientific disciplines has led to widespread adoption of machine learning (ML) for prediction.

arXiv AI
Sep 7

Long Horizon Transformer Quantile Fault Prediction for Multi Site Industrial Predictive Maintenance

The paper introduces TQRNN30d, a long‑horizon predictive maintenance model that uses a dual‑stage quantile regression neural network to transform hourly machine data into a 324‑dimensional quantile‑state representation, which is then classified with a multi‑stream temporal fusion architecture. Trained on data from 72 machines across nine facilities, the model achieves high performance at 30‑day horizons (F1 ≈ 80%, recall ≈ 80%, precision ≈ 82%, accuracy ≈ 82%, ROC‑AUC ≈ 0.82) and outperforms 18 baseline methods at 7‑, 14‑, and 30‑day thresholds. The study demonstrates that explicit conditional‑quantile representations can effectively distinguish gradual degradation from normal operation over multi‑day planning windows, though generalisation to unseen sites or equipment remains untested.

By David J Poland, Daniele Ravi, Na Helian