arXiv AI

MLE-World: Predicting Machine Learning Experiment Outcomes with a Learned World Model

MLE-World is a world model fine‑tuned from Qwen3.5‑4B that predicts the terminal output of a machine learning program—such as error traces, training logs, and validation scores—directly from its code and data description, without executing the program. It also provides a confidence score indicating the likelihood that the prediction is correct. Using these predictions, the authors design five test‑time‑scaling policies that compare multiple candidate programs per step, executing only those with low confidence, and demonstrate that MLE‑World matches real outputs on 77.9% of held‑out programs and improves agent performance by up to 22.1% with fewer real executions.

arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 9

DataSense-Bench: The First Step Toward an AI Scientist

DataSense-Bench is a new benchmark that tests whether advanced AI models can choose and rank training data subsets that will improve a small language model’s performance. The benchmark lets agents inspect data, run analysis code, and perform forward passes, but not train the model or access evaluation tasks. After agents select subsets, the base model is fine‑tuned on each subset and evaluated, measuring both the performance of the best subset and the accuracy of the agents’ rankings. Experiments show limited gains over random selection and inconsistent ranking ability across tasks, with agents often using similar data signals but interpreting their value differently.

By Yudi Zhang, Mingyu Cao, Lu Yin, Mykola Pechenizkiy, Shiwei Liu
arXiv AI
Oct 16

MLExpert: Towards a Generalist Agentic Model for Autonomous Machine Learning Engineering

MLExpert is a 35B Mixture-of-Experts agentic model designed to autonomously perform long‑horizon machine learning engineering (MLE) tasks. It uses a post‑training method that combines hierarchical agentic supervised fine‑tuning with Windowed Interaction RL to learn from intermediate outcomes in complex experimentation workflows. On the MLE‑Bench Lite benchmark, MLExpert raises the average medal rate from 37.9% to 72.7%, matching the performance of larger frontier models and demonstrating generalizable optimization capabilities across related tasks.

By Shangheng Du, Jinxin Shi, Shuaiyu Zhang, Yiming Wu, Junpeng Zhao, Shiyang Feng, Xin Li, Liang He, Xiangchao Yan, Bo Zhang
arXiv AI
Oct 19

Can LLMs predict the outcomes of machine learning experiments?

The paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) can anticipate the outcomes of machine‑learning experiments they generate. Using a dataset of 288 LLM‑proposed ideas across eight MLE‑bench tasks, the authors prompt five state‑of‑the‑art LLMs to predict each idea’s impact before training. Results show that while predictions outperform random chance, accuracy is limited—Claude Opus 5.5 explains only about half the variance (R² = 0.49), all models underestimate effect sizes, and performance varies by task, with coding harness choice having little influence.

By Ayush Bansal, Aldo Pareja, Sean Klein, Serge Didenko, Artem Lukoianov
arXiv AI
Jul 3

PACE: A Proxy for Agentic Capability Evaluation

arXiv:2607. 02032v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating LLM agents on benchmarks like SWE-Bench and GAIA can be expensive, time-consuming, and requires complex infrastructure.

By Yueqi Song, Lintang Sutawika, Jiarui Liu, Lindia Tjuatja, Jiayi Geng, Yunze Xiao, Daniel Lee, Aditya Bharat Soni, Vincent Lo, Xiang Yue, Graham Neubig
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 3

EarlyEval: Cheaper Agent Evaluation via Early Outcome Prediction

EarlyEval introduces a lightweight framework that predicts an LLM agent’s final outcome early in its execution, allowing the run to halt when a LightGBM classifier reaches a calibrated confidence threshold. By training success and failure classifiers on behavioral, textual, and reference-solution features, EarlyEval can cut 13%-26% of agent steps and up to 44.1% of input tokens while maintaining 89%-97% prediction accuracy. Across three benchmarks—SWE-bench Verified, TerminalBench, and Toolathlon—this approach reduces evaluation costs with minimal impact on per-agent resolve rates.

By Yuling Shi, Zhensu Sun, Junsen Dong, Chengcheng Wan, David Lo, Xiaodong Gu
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Oct 15

MLExpert: Towards a Generalist Agentic Model for Autonomous Machine Learning Engineering

MLExpert is a 35B Mixture-of-Experts agentic model designed to autonomously conduct long‑horizon machine learning engineering (MLE) tasks. It uses a post‑training approach that combines hierarchical supervised fine‑tuning with Windowed Interaction RL to learn from intermediate outcomes in complex experimentation workflows. On the MLE‑Bench Lite benchmark, MLExpert raises the average medal rate from 37.9% to 72.7%, matching the performance of larger frontier models and demonstrating transferable optimization capabilities to other benchmarks such as NatureBench Lite.

arXiv AI
Aug 17

AI Research Preference Models

arXiv:2608. 13940v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI research agents (AIRA) can now propose, implement, and evaluate their own machine learning experiments, but progress on frontier tasks is throttled by cost: a candidate solution can be written in minutes, whereas evaluating it can take hours to days of GPU time.

By Thomas Simon Foster, Bassel Al Omari, Tingchen Fu, Thomas Mann, Carl Domond, Lucia Cipolina-Kun, Bhavul Gauri, Muna Aghamelu, Alexander D. Goldie, Eryk Helenowski, Jean-Christophe Gagnon-Audet, Alberto Pepe, Saba Nazir, Daniel Izcovich, Noam Levi, Rishi Hazra, Karen Hambardzumyan, Nicolas Baldwin, Xian Li, Martin Josifoski, Paris Giampouras, Masoud Jalili Sabet, Anya Sims, Hela Momand, Tatiana Shavrina, Despoina Magka, Jason Weston, Yulin Wang, Anirudh Goyal, Jo\~ao Henriques, Yoram Bachrach, Emily McMilin, Jakob Nicolaus Foerster
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 15

Co-Evolving Acting and Forecasting for Language Agents

The paper introduces CoPE, a method that trains language agents by adding multi‑step action targets to the policy backbone. By supervising each action forecasted from preceding histories, CoPE enables acting and forecasting to co‑evolve without extra inference cost. Across five benchmarks, CoPE outperforms existing RL baselines, achieving up to twice the sample efficiency on ScienceWorld and improving overall performance on realistic applications.

By Haofei Yu, Yixing Chen, Yining Zhao, Xuyan Ye, Yuxiang Liu, Zhigang Hua, Yan Xie, Shuang Yang, Jiaxuan You
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 7

Predicting Task Difficulty Without Rollouts

arXiv:2608. 05797v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Task difficulty dictates an agent's likelihood of success, and estimating it without rollouts means forecasting this directly from a task description before executing costly simulations in stateful environments.

By Stefan Krsteski, Charlotte Meyer