SimplexUQ introduces the first benchmark and reproducible protocol for evaluating how conformal prediction wrappers allocate coverage across simplex‑valued predictions. The framework, called SimplexTasks‑12, combines six synthetic regimes and six real tasks (e.g., class probabilities, topic mixtures, spectral abundances) to compare existing wrappers on metrics such as marginal coverage, worst‑stratum coverage, max disparity, and computational cost. Empirical results show that no single wrapper consistently dominates, with Mondrian and BatchMVP performing best in different settings, and that removing predictor bias only partially mitigates disparity.
arXiv:2607. 24562v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models serve heterogeneous populations structured by domain, topic difficulty, and linguistic style.
arXiv:2606. 25760v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Computer-use agents turn vision-language model (VLM) predictions into executable GUI clicks, so reliable uncertainty estimates are essential for rejection, calibration, miss-severity ranking, and spatial safety regions.
arXiv:2606. 29654v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-agent deliberation among LLMs can improve reasoning, but deployment requires deciding when the current answer is reliable enough to act on and when it should be escalated to human review.
The paper introduces a method to certify selective prediction in machine learning systems by computing the availability of safety gates through exact-binomial inversion and dynamic programming. It demonstrates that a truth-informed planner can significantly improve mean coverage over naive approaches, and that reallocating error budgets further enhances coverage across diverse applications such as LLM tool‑calling, content moderation, lesion classification, and recommendation. The study highlights the importance of planning and finite‑sample estimation in ensuring reliable, granular deployment of selective predictors.
arXiv:2608.21653v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-task learning often combines losses that span several orders of magnitude, causing homoscedastic uncertainty weighting to degrade severely. We...
arXiv:2607. 27143v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-stakes decision systems in credit scoring, fraud detection, healthcare, and industrial safety require reliable uncertainty quantification under severe class imbalance and asymmetric error costs.
The paper presents Baszta, a Polish multi‑label content‑safety classifier trained by fine‑tuning the 124M‑parameter allegro/herbert‑base‑cased model on five categories (hate, vulgarity, sexual content, crime, self‑harm) using a Focal + R‑Drop objective. In out‑of‑distribution evaluation on the Gadzi Język benchmark, Baszta achieves a small but statistically significant improvement in micro‑F1 over the Bielik Guard system, though the macro‑F1 advantage disappears when both models are properly tuned. The study also explores calibration techniques, showing that per‑category temperature scaling can recover performance lost by Platt scaling or isotonic regression, and discusses the trade‑offs between robust calibration and adversarial recall.
arXiv:2608. 08008v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Process reward models (PRMs) score intermediate reasoning steps and are widely used for search, ranking, and training, but optimization can exploit these learned proxies by increasing reward while turning correct reasoning into incorrect reasoning.
arXiv:2603. 05659v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) and Rubrics as Rewards (RaR) have driven strong gains in domains with clear correctness signals and even in subjective domains by synthesizing evaluation criteria from ideal reference answers.
arXiv:2608. 10145v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LeWorldModel trains a latent world model with a prediction loss and a single anti-collapse regulariser, and reports approximately 87% of goals reached on TwoRoom, its simplest diagnostic environment.
A stable compression score can still select the worse model. In our dense study, a split-half reliable path-quadratic score predicted a 16.
arXiv:2606. 20364v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A companion study established a de-biased, cross-model VLM-as-3D-judge that reliably ranks single-image-to-3D mesh quality where cheap geometry and CLIP proxies fall short.