arXiv Machine Learning

Counterfactual Tool Ranking under Utility, Cost, and Privilege Constraints

The paper introduces a counterfactual tool ranking framework that accounts for authority, historical support, and estimation nuances. Using eleven enterprise-inspired tools, synthetic and real-world experiments on the Berkeley Function Calling Leaderboard, the study compares direct regression and doubly robust (DR) methods, finding that DR performs better in shifted environments while direct regression excels in linear settings. The authors also evaluate Qwen2.5 models on held-out tasks, analyze policy differences under missing support, and present a falsifiable evaluation method with publicly available evidence.

Hugging Face Trending Papers
Sep 2

ObserverBench: Testing Mechanistic Estimates for Intervention and Control

ObserverBench is a benchmark framework that evaluates whether internal mechanistic estimators—called observers—are suitable for guiding interventions, control, or safety actions in language models. It separates estimation accuracy from the loss incurred by the chosen action, demonstrating that accurate average estimates can still lead to poor decisions. Experiments on GPT‑2‑small, Qwen2.5‑7B, Gemma‑2‑9B‑it, and Qwen3.5‑9B show that observers trained on action loss tend to select lower‑loss actions, while traditional metrics like AUROC can rank monitors differently from deployment loss, highlighting the need for task‑specific evaluation.

arXiv AI
Sep 4

ObserverBench: Testing Mechanistic Estimates for Intervention and Control

ObserverBench is a benchmark framework that evaluates whether internal mechanistic estimators—called observers—are suitable for guiding interventions, control, or safety actions in language models. It separates estimation accuracy from the loss incurred by the chosen action, showing that accurate predictions do not always lead to better decisions. Experiments on GPT‑2‑small, Qwen2.5‑7B, Gemma‑2‑9B‑it, and Qwen3.5‑9B demonstrate that observers trained on action loss can reduce deployment loss, while traditional metrics like AUROC may rank monitors differently from actual performance.

By Vijay Erramilli
arXiv AI
Oct 28

CASEL: Consequence-Aware Selective Execution for Reliable Long-Horizon Tool-Using Agents

CASEL (Consequence-Aware Selective Execution Layer) is a runtime allocation policy for tool‑using language agents that chooses among direct execution, verification, sandboxing, clarification, approval, and abstention for each proposed tool call. It combines calibrated failure probability, state‑dependent consequence, reversibility, ambiguity, and evidence freshness to minimize a per‑mode cost. In controlled simulations, CASEL cuts harmful‑side‑effect trajectories from 14.75 % to 7.02 % and reduces mean normalized harm from 0.184 to 0.123 compared to an uncertainty‑ranked gate.

By Yanyan Zhang, Fei Shen, Ting Yan, Hao Zhang
arXiv Computer Vision
Oct 28

How Much Can Best-of-N Help a World Action Model? Measuring Selectable Headroom and Realizing It in Closed Loop

The paper introduces a denoised counterfactual protocol to accurately measure the selectable headroom of world action models (WAMs) and uses these measurements to build a fail‑gated selector. Across four WAMs and two benchmarks, the study shows that the standard estimate overstates selectable headroom, that structured action perturbations can add up to 16 points of headroom, and that imagined futures retain candidate‑outcome information without loss. The selector improves closed‑loop task success from 76.9 % to 81.6 % on held‑out training episodes and from 62.6 % to 69.8 % on unseen tasks.

By Haojia Gao, Yue Cao, Yumin Liu, Haohua Que, Mingkai Liu, Guanqiu Guo, Zhuo Zou, Bokui Chen, Xueqian Wang