arXiv Statistics ML

LUCID: Local Understanding of Covariate Importance with Conditional Density Estimation

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 1

Prediction-Powered Conditional Inference

arXiv:2603.05575v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study prediction-powered conditional inference in the setting where labeled data are scarce, unlabeled covariates are abundant, and a blac...

By Yang Sui, Jin Zhou, Hua Zhou, Xiaowu Dai
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21

MinShap: A Shapley-Based Framework for Feature Redundancy

arXiv:2604. 15107v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Shapley values provide a flexible framework for attributing feature contributions to model predictions, but they are not naturally suited for feature selection: a feature may receive a positive attribution even when it is redundant given the remaining variables.

By Chenghui Zheng, Garvesh Raskutti
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 21

Measuring Variable Importance Using Proportional Inclusive Marginal Effects

The paper introduces PRIME, a new variable‑importance measure that addresses two limitations of the existing proportional marginal effects (PME) method: it is applicable to stochastic models and reduces computational cost. PRIME achieves this by employing a model‑free variable‑selection technique to isolate active variables before computing importance. Experiments on synthetic test functions and real datasets demonstrate that PRIME accurately and reliably quantifies variable importance from noisy input‑output data.

By Youngseo Cho, V. Roshan Joseph
arXiv AI
Aug 28

Diagnosing Conformal Prediction Failures Under Distribution Shift: A COVID-19 Case Study

The paper introduces SHAP concentration as a pre‑deployment diagnostic for detecting when conformal prediction will fail under distribution shift, specifically in gradient‑boosted classifiers. Using a COVID‑19 supply‑chain case study, the authors show that higher feature‑importance concentration correlates with larger drops in coverage, while standard shift detectors cannot differentiate between catastrophic and robust outcomes. The diagnostic is validated on additional datasets, and a formal theorem links concentration to worsening conformity‑score bounds, though it does not capture global‑sensitivity failures in neural networks.

By Chorok Lee
arXiv AI
Oct 2

MCIR: A Feature Dependence-Aware Explainability Method with Reliability Guarantees

The paper introduces MCIR-M, a global feature‑importance method that accounts for feature dependence by conditioning each feature on its strongly dependent neighbours and computing a normalized Mutual Correlation Impact Ratio. MCIR-M yields a population score between 0 and 1, reaching zero when a feature is exactly conditionally redundant, and can be estimated with only a fraction of the data. Experiments on synthetic redundancy setups and the UCI HAR benchmark show that MCIR-M produces more stable rankings under near‑duplicate predictors compared to existing methods such as SHAP, SAGE, HSIC, and MI‑based scores.

By Poushali Sengupta, Sabita Maharjan, Frank Eliassen, Shashi Raj Pandey, Yan Zhang