arXiv AI

Attention-Path Fragility as an Uncertainty Signal in Large Language Models

arXiv:2608. 11138v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose that a model's uncertainty about a token is reflected not only in the breadth of its output distribution but also in whether a confident prediction is \emph{fragile} under perturbation of its attention pathways.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 16

Attention Mean Fields Predict Average Representation Dynamics and Reveal Context-Specific Computation

The paper presents a mean‑field analysis of attention in language models, defining an average attention kernel that propagates representations layer by layer. When conditioned on a whole corpus, the kernel predicts the average evolution of representation geometry; when conditioned on a single context, it predicts the expected geometry for that context. The difference between actual attention and the mean‑field prediction—called the mean‑field deviation—captures context‑specific computation, revealing how models diverge from average behavior during training and in few‑shot tasks.

By Micah Adler, John W. Byers, Mark Crovella
arXiv AI
Sep 21

How do LLMs Compute Verbal Confidence

arXiv:2603.17839v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Verbal confidence -- prompting LLMs to state their confidence as a number or category -- is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from...

By Dharshan Kumaran, Arthur Conmy, Federico Barbero, Simon Osindero, Viorica Patraucean, Petar Veli\v{c}kovi\'c
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 18

An Analysis of Training-Free Self-Reported Confidence in Language Models

The paper investigates whether language models’ self-reported confidence is meaningful without additional training. By evaluating three training‑free signals—direct verbalization, post‑hoc probability estimates, and agreement across multiple generations—on 100 TriviaQA questions, the authors find that direct verbalization alone achieves high AUROC scores (0.956 and 0.937) for correctness prediction, while agreement-based methods perform noticeably worse. Re‑eliciting confidence for the same answers shows modest score shifts and occasional decision flips, and an audit of biography claims reveals only a small confidence gap between supported and contradicted statements.

By Lukas Meyer, Sofia Rossi, Wei Chen, Thomas Laurent, Yiming Li