arXiv Machine Learning

Noise-Debiased Thermodynamic Variance for Local Learning Coefficient Probes

The paper introduces the Shift‑Invariant Variance Estimator (SIVE) to remove same‑state noise from thermodynamic variance calculations in neural‑network training. SIVE provides an unbiased estimate of path variance without requiring Markov chain Monte Carlo stationarity, and it reveals a reproducible mid‑training trough and rebound in MNIST MLP trajectories that raw variance masks. Experiments across multiple localization scales confirm that SIVE captures a large portion of observation noise and satisfies an early‑drop/late‑rise criterion in most trajectory‑scale pairs.

arXiv AI
Jul 21

First-Order Predictable but Pairwise Fragile: Local Task Adaptation in Trained Transformers

arXiv:2607. 16821v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Task arithmetic, sequential fine-tuning, activation steering, and first-order random search all operate through relatively small perturbations around an already trained checkpoint, and they rely on different local approximations: individual perturbations should be first-order predictable, task updates should compose with controlled interference, useful tangent structure should be stable and possible to estimate, and weight edits should have counterparts in representation space.

By Irina Piontkovskaia, Sergey Nikolenko