arXiv Machine Learning

David vs. Goliath in Next Activity Prediction: Argmax vs. LSTM, Transformer, and LLM

arXiv:2606. 15868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Next activity prediction (NAP) is a cornerstone of predictive process monitoring (PPM), enabling organizations to move from retrospective analysis to proactive process steering.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 31

Revisiting Predictive Process Monitoring in the Age of Foundation Models: A Comparative Study of Sequence, Tabular, and LLM Approaches

arXiv:2607. 27797v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predictive process monitoring (PPM) leverages event logs to forecast the future of running process instances, for instance, predicting the next activity, the remaining time until case completion, or the time to the next event.

By Lennart Fertig, Lukas Kirchdorfer, Tobias Sesterhenn
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 31

D-TAIA: Domain-Aware LLM Adaptation for Multi-Task Predictive Process Monitoring

D-TAIA is a framework that adapts large language models for multi‑task predictive process monitoring, jointly predicting the next activity and remaining time of ongoing cases. It uses domain‑aware triplet loss pre‑training, FAISS‑based nearest‑neighbor retrieval for time estimation, and a TAIA inference strategy to preserve sequential reasoning while fine‑tuning a 10 M‑parameter backbone. Across four real‑world event logs, D‑TAIA achieves state‑of‑the‑art or competitive results compared to a fine‑tuned LLM and a recurrent neural network baseline, with ablation studies showing the effectiveness of NLP and computer‑vision techniques for this domain.

By Sjoerd van Straten, Christine Jacob, Marwan Hassani
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 3

A Unified Particle Filter LSTM for Data-Driven Process Simulation

The paper introduces a Unified Particle Filter LSTM (Unified PF‑LSTM) for data‑driven process simulation, which maintains a weighted set of recurrent‑state hypotheses to better capture latent process conditions from incomplete event logs. By summarizing this particle belief with a weighted mean and moment‑generating‑function features, the model predicts next‑activity probabilities and conditional sojourn‑time quantiles. Experiments on three real‑world emergency department datasets show that the framework consistently outperforms existing data‑driven baselines in reproducing routing, duration, and system‑level behavior, especially when process dynamics are only partially reflected in the logs.

By Parvin Malekzadeh, Opher Baron, Dmitry Krass
arXiv AI
Aug 26

Towards Reproducibility in Predictive Process Mining: SPICE -- A Deep Learning Library

The paper introduces SPICE, a Python framework that reimplements three popular deep‑learning methods for Predictive Process Mining (PPM) using PyTorch. It provides a common, highly configurable base to enable reproducible and robust comparison of PPM models, addressing issues of reproducibility, transparency, and usability. The authors benchmark SPICE against the original reported metrics and fair metrics across 11 datasets.

By Oliver Stritzel, Nick H\"uhnerbein, Simon Rauch, Itzel Zarate, Lukas Fleischmann, Moike Buck, Attila Lischka, Christian Frey
arXiv AI
Sep 3

AGI Maze Prediction Datasets: A Compact Benchmark for Learning World Dynamics with Transformers

The paper introduces the AGI Maze Prediction Datasets and Benchmark, a lightweight, procedurally generated grid‑world testbed for evaluating predictive models, particularly Transformers, on tasks such as per‑step transition prediction, fixed‑horizon state prediction, and sequential textual‑observation prediction. It compares byte‑level Transformer baselines with two memory‑augmented architectures, showing that a pseudo‑video spatial‑memory Transformer achieves perfect validation accuracy on selected tasks and improves sequential text‑trace prediction, while a generic auxiliary latent‑memory Transformer does not consistently help. The study highlights that structured, task‑aligned working memory can be more effective than merely increasing latent capacity, and positions the benchmark as a compact setting for testing architectures that couple textual interfaces to learned structured state.

By Alexey Potapov
arXiv AI
Sep 10

WorldAgen: Unified State-Action Prediction with Test-Time World Model Training

WorldAgen is a unified framework that jointly learns world modeling and action prediction using a shared Transformer backbone with two specialized heads. It introduces a Mixed Unidirectional Attention Mask to separate the world model and agent model, and enables Test-Time Training (TTT) by sampling exploratory actions and updating the world model with real state transitions. Experiments on CALVIN and LIBERO show that WorldAgen matches or surpasses state‑of‑the‑art methods, especially when TTT is applied to a few samples.

By Chi Wan, Kangrui Wang, Yuan Si, Pingyue Zhang, Manling Li