arXiv:2607. 20239v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayesian online learning promises uncertainty-aware prediction on data streams, but its performance hinges on inferential choices, including learning rates, prior distributions and variational families, which are usually fixed before seeing the stream.
arXiv:2605. 14953v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We address the problem of conformal selection, where an agent must select a minimal subset of options to ensure that at least one ``success'' is identified with a pre-specified target probability $\phi$.
arXiv:2604. 06464v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees, and recent work by Snell \& Griffiths reframes it as Bayesian Quadrature (BQ-CP), yielding powerful data-conditional guarantees via Dirichlet posteriors over thresholds.
arXiv:2607. 04236v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Bayes-assisted conformal prediction combines the strengths of Bayesian modelling with exact, distribution-free frequentist coverage guarantees.
arXiv:2606. 31915v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While conformal prediction provides a general framework for uncertainty quantification in predictive inference, its application is often limited by computational cost.
arXiv:2607. 26577v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) of Gibbs and Cand{\`e}s and its variants are the standard approach to online conformal prediction under distribution shift, but they suffer from three fundamental limitations.
arXiv:2606. 18778v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Online learning in non-stationary streams is often formulated as tracking a point estimate, but many applications require predicting the full data-generating distribution.
arXiv:2511. 04275v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction has emerged as a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed coverage assuming only the exchangeability assumption.
arXiv:2606. 31184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Adaptive experiments for average treatment effects (ATE) require randomized allocations balancing valid inference with statistical efficiency.
arXiv:2608. 07139v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty quantification is essential when deploying machine learning models in safety-critical applications.
arXiv:2511. 16340v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Efficient Gaussian process (GP) inference is critical for sequential decision-making tasks such as active learning, online prediction, and Bayesian optimization.
arXiv:2606. 26497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems seeks to infer the evolving conditional distribution of the state of a dynamical system, given observations, in an online fashion.
arXiv:2507. 20975v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Operator models are regression algorithms between Banach spaces of functions.