arXiv Machine Learning

Predictable performance is suboptimal, and what it means for model routing

The paper investigates how performance predictors can improve model routing for large language models (LLMs). It shows that a predictor only outperforms a model’s self‑confidence when the candidate model is suboptimal or the predictor adds significant capacity. The authors provide theoretical bounds, extend the analysis to two‑model cascades, and confirm their findings experimentally across 16 LLMs on four benchmarks, noting that the advantage diminishes as models are fine‑tuned.

Hugging Face Trending Papers
Oct 22

Predictable performance is suboptimal, and what it means for model routing

The paper investigates how performance predictors can improve model routing for large language models (LLMs). It shows that a predictor only outperforms a model’s self‑confidence when the candidate model is suboptimal or the predictor adds significant capacity. The authors provide theoretical bounds, extend the analysis to two‑model cascades, and confirm that predictors help most with suboptimal models, with gains diminishing after fine‑tuning.

arXiv Computation and Language
Oct 19

Who Pays for Efficient Inference? Confidence-Based Small-to-Large LLM Routing Across Tasks and Languages

The paper evaluates confidence‑based routing of small‑to‑large language models across multiple tasks, languages, and model families, covering 72 configurations and over 42,000 predictions. It finds that confidence routing improves performance on reading comprehension and topic classification datasets, but offers little benefit on a knowledge‑reasoning benchmark where small models remain confidently wrong. The study also shows that global confidence routing can create large language‑specific performance gaps, which equal‑quota routing mitigates with minimal overall accuracy loss.

By Md Sabbir Hossen, Anichur Rahman, Pabon Shaha, Airin Afroj Aishi, Andrew H. Sung, Md Shohel Rana
arXiv Computation and Language
Oct 28

A Unified Approach to Routing and Cascading for LLMs

The paper introduces a unified framework called cascade routing that combines routing and cascading strategies for selecting large language models (LLMs) in agentic systems. It derives an optimal cascading strategy, proves the optimality of an existing routing strategy, and demonstrates that integrating both leads to a theoretically optimal approach. Experiments show cascade routing consistently outperforms the individual methods, and the study identifies high‑quality estimators as crucial for effective model selection.

By Jasper Dekoninck, Maximilian Baader, Martin Vechev
arXiv AI
Sep 30

Routing Should Pay for Itself: Sparse Supervision for Economical LLM Routing

The paper introduces SaveRouter, a sparse‑supervision framework for large language model routing that selectively gathers informative model feedback and shares capability information across related queries. By using only about 33–41% of available training feedback, SaveRouter achieves competitive or superior routing quality while reducing the break‑even deployment volume by 1.9–9.5× compared to conventional routers. The study also shows that the supervision level that minimizes serving cost may differ from the one that yields the earliest payback.

By Guannan Lai, Gelin Bian, Hao-Xuan Ma, Jun-Peng Jiang, Long Chen, Jian-Dong Liu, Zhi-Hao Tan, Han-Jia Ye
arXiv Computation and Language
Oct 26

Cluster, Route, Escalate: Cascaded Framework for Cost-Aware LLM Serving

arXiv:2606.27457v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Serving open-weight language models on premises forces a trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. Hosting models of different sizes...

By Yasmin Moslem, Magdalena Kacmajor, Vasudevan Nedumpozhimana, Ammar Abbas, Solmaz Panahi, David Lynch, Zhuangzhuang Nie, Alexandros Agapitos, Aleksandar Milenovic, Hongmeng Song, Yucheng Shi, Yue Pan, Patricia Buffini, John D. Kelleher