arXiv Machine Learning

Reinforcement Learning under State and Outcome Uncertainty: A Foundational Distributional Perspective

arXiv AI
Aug 19

Quantifying Risk Under Evolving Uncertainty: Belief-Dependent Robustness for Safe Sequential Decision Making

The paper introduces RATTL (Risk-Adversarial Total-Reward Learning), a framework that adjusts an agent’s caution based on epistemic uncertainty by using a Bayesian posterior over dynamics and a Wasserstein ambiguity set whose radius depends on that posterior. As evidence accumulates, the radius shrinks, smoothly transitioning the agent’s behavior from worst-case robustness to risk-neutral reward maximization. The authors prove a Safety Sandwich theorem showing RATTL’s value lies between the uninformed robust value and the full-knowledge optimum, and demonstrate the method on a binary-hazard example where the criterion reduces to Conditional Value-at-Risk.

By Deep Kumar Ganguly, Jan Kretinsky
arXiv Machine Learning
5d ago

Learning Chance-Constrained MDPs with Bellman Distributional Certificates

The paper introduces a new approach to learning chance-constrained Markov decision processes (CCMDPs) using a Bellman distributional certificate. It provides both model-based and model-free algorithms with theoretical guarantees, including matching upper and lower bounds for tabular discounted CCMDPs with bounded successor support. Numerical experiments on synthetic CCMDPs and an IEEE 14-bus energy storage benchmark demonstrate the safety and effectiveness of the proposed methods.

By Chenbei Lu, Hongyu Yi