arXiv Statistics ML

Finite-Sample FDR Control for Greedy Aggregation over Networks

arXiv AI
Sep 10

Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification

The paper tackles selecting a cost‑constrained set of experiments that most effectively tighten bounds on a partially identifiable causal query. It formalizes this as the NP‑hard max‑potency problem, introduces efficient graphical pruning rules to reduce the search space, and demonstrates the approach on synthetic graphs and real NHANES data to estimate the effect of physical activity on diabetes.

By Tobias Maringgele, Jalal Etesami
arXiv AI
Jun 11

The Power of Test-Time Training for Approximate Sampling

arXiv:2606. 11437v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Efficiently sampling from a complex probability distribution is a fundamental problem which has become increasingly pertinent in recent years with the rise of generative AI, as sophisticated sampling procedures from LLMs have been proposed to solve challenging reasoning problems.

By Noah Golowich, Ankur Moitra, Dhruv Rohatgi
arXiv AI
Sep 18

Efficient Nash Equilibrium Computation for Cybersecurity Games

The paper introduces Regret-Weighted Payoff Sampling (RWPS), a budgeted estimator that selectively simulates only payoff-matrix cells relevant to a Nash equilibrium and uses a surrogate model for the remaining entries. RWPS provides an instance-dependent error bound weighted by the opponent’s equilibrium mixture and a coverage result guaranteeing that, once the deviation-relevant set is simulated, surrogate error does not affect either player’s regret. Experiments on three 21×21 general-sum games, including an asymmetric Colonel Blotto, show that RWPS achieves four to six times tighter bounds than previous methods and outperforms other sampling strategies on the CyGym and ANSG cyber simulators at low budgets.

By Michael Lanier, David Farmer, Yevgeniy Vorobeychik
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Leveraging Inference-Time Compute for Diffusion Models via Global Scheduling of Denoising Trajectories

The paper studies how to allocate a fixed computational budget across the denoising steps of diffusion models to improve sample quality at deployment. It shows that the expected benefit of evaluating multiple candidates at a step can be decomposed into a step‑specific sensitivity and a universal sample‑size factor, and that the optimal allocation follows a water‑filling structure. Experiments demonstrate that this allocation achieves the same quality as a uniform strategy while reducing function evaluations by 20–50%.

By Yuan Cao, Yifu Tang, Hangqi Li, Zeyu Zheng