arXiv:2606. 30037v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In a deep forecasting pipeline for fat-tailed financial returns at short horizons, which matters more - the backbone architecture or the output head?
arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
arXiv:2607. 03809v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Normalising flows provide a powerful variational family for approximate inference, yet individual architectures often fail to generalise across heterogeneous posterior geometries.
arXiv:2608. 11544v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose CVaR-penalized Generative Particle Algorithm (CVaR-GPA), a robust, tail-agnostic algorithm for fine-tuning generative models to learn heavy-tailed distributions and capture extreme events, requiring no prior knowledge or estimation of the target's tail characteristics.
arXiv:2603. 11308v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a cornerstone of dimensionality reduction, yet its classical formulation relies critically on second-order moments and is therefore fragile in the presence of heavy-tailed data and impulsive noise.
arXiv:2607. 12248v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large pretrained time-series models such as TimesFM are attractive for financial forecasting, but raw directional accuracy is a misleading scoreboard in equity markets.
arXiv:2606. 09104v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) frameworks for portfolio optimization have shown promise for their ability to learn allocation rules dynamically from market data.
arXiv:2607. 05450v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper explores the "Granularity Paradox" in time-series forecasting, wherein finer temporal disaggregation (e.
arXiv:2607. 19383v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Pretrained generative foundation models cast forecasting as conditional generation from a learned predictive distribution and forecast unseen series zero-shot.
arXiv:2509. 13374v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We develop and audit a history-aware financial path generator based on Denoising Levy Probabilistic Models (DLPMs) for conditional equity-index path generation.
arXiv:2605. 18931v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Heavy-tailed distributions are prevalent in performance evaluation, network traffic, and risk modeling.
arXiv:2607. 16811v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Drift detectors that work tend not to explain themselves, and drift detectors that explain themselves tend to fail in high dimension.
arXiv:2607. 16811v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We revisit Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) as a lightweight, interpretable tool for anomaly detection and, in particular, for detecting distributional drift in data streams.