arXiv:2608. 04200v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial sentiment classifiers are commonly evaluated against human labels, but strong linguistic performance does not necessarily imply economically useful return predictability.
arXiv:2608. 09834v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial sentiment analysis converts unstructured financial news into quantitative signals that can support market analysis and decision-making.
The paper evaluates twelve financial sentiment models—including dictionary-based methods, finance-specific transformers, and open-source large language models—using linguistic and economic validity criteria. General-purpose LLMs match finance-specific transformers in classification performance but do not yield stronger economic relationships. While several models correlate with earnings surprises, none shows a significant link to next‑day stock returns, and performance is strongest for large earnings beats or misses.
arXiv:2609.23703v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial language models can transform unstructured firm-specific news into structured decision signals, but financial AI research lacks an integrat...
arXiv:2607. 14174v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial sentiment extraction has largely relied on news text and supervised extraction against return labels alone, leaving 10-K filings -- and volatility, the target risk disclosure is arguably best suited to informing -- comparatively unexplored.
The study examines whether financial sentiment tools that are validated against human labels also reliably predict market outcomes. Using a large corpus of securities class action messages linked to abnormal stock returns, the authors compare five sentiment instruments—VADER, Loughran‑McDonald, FinBERT, Twitter‑RoBERTa, and an LLM annotator—within a single pipeline. Results show that the alignment between human agreement and sentiment scores varies with sampling strategy and time horizon: conventional sampling favors same‑day associations, while fixed‑n panels yield similar correlations for both same‑day and one‑day‑ahead predictions, yet overall predictive rankings remain weak.
arXiv:2607. 28127v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advances in Generative AI have substantially improved financial sentiment analysis through post-trained financial large language models (LLMs).
arXiv:2608. 19558v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial AI systems often train information extractors on one textual register and deploy them across filings, news, and user-generated content, while standard F1 scores do not indicate which predictions remain safe to automate when the input distribution changes.
arXiv:2608. 08634v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Open-weight language models from Chinese AI labs caught up on benchmarks relative to proprietary frontier models in recent months.
The paper investigates confidence estimation and selective prediction for financial named entity recognition (NER) under domain shift, using a stress test across SEC filings, financial news, and social media. It evaluates BERT and LoRA‑tuned Qwen2.5 models with five inference‑time confidence signals, finding that whole‑output probability is a strong in‑domain error detector but weak out‑of‑domain, while entity‑span probability and self‑consistency remain robust. Abstention can dramatically reduce sentence error on high‑confidence in‑domain data, but offers limited benefit under extreme social‑media shift, suggesting a staged deployment that first detects severe distribution shift before applying confidence gating.
Large language models (LLMs) can synthesize financial narratives but may express high confidence when evidence is sparse, stale, or contradictory. This failure is especially consequential in forecasting, where filings, news, prices, volume, and technical signals can disagree.
This paper presents an empirical comparison of lexicon-based and Large Language Model (LLM)-based sentiment analysis for extracting market-relevant signals from social media discourse in highly volatile equity markets. Using Reddit data from r/WallStreetBets and focusing on meme stocks (GME, AMC, NOK), we construct time-aligned sentiment indicators and evaluate their relationship with market returns, with particular attention to extreme positive return events in the upper tail of the return distribution.
arXiv:2606. 24950v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial decision-making is contextual: forecasting prices, valuing companies, and assessing event exposure weigh price history, accounting fundamentals, macroeconomic regime, and contemporaneous text.