The paper develops a nonparametric empirical Bayes approach for estimating sums of functions of observable and unobservable variables in Poisson mixture models, using regular and coarsened minimum‑distance estimation of the mixing distribution. It proves large‑sample guarantees that the plug‑in estimates converge to the oracle Bayes estimate, achieving nearly parametric rates when the mixing distribution has finite support. Finite‑sample analyses are provided for two specific sums—total intensity below a threshold and the number of units exceeding latent intensity—along with minimax regret bounds and conditions for bounded regret.
arXiv:2610. 01088v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of a Gaussian location mixture maximizes the likelihood over the infinite-dimensional space of mixing distributions.
The paper studies estimation of univariate Gaussian mixture densities using the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE). It proves that the unconstrained NPMLE attains the minimax optimal rate ∑(n)/n in squared Hellinger distance when the true mixing measure is sub‑Gaussian, and that a compactly constrained NPMLE achieves a slightly faster rate ∑(n)/(n∑∑(n)). The analysis relies on sharp bounds for local Hellinger bracketing entropy and introduces new bounds on the L² bracketing entropy of bounded‑degree polynomial balls.
arXiv:2504.05161v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Score estimation is the backbone of score-based generative models (SGMs), especially denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs). A key...
arXiv:2608. 11162v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Naive Bayes (NB) classifier remains a standard choice for categorical data, yet its widely used smoothing rules, such as Laplace, Lidstone, Krichevsky-Trofimov, and the $m$-estimate, all prescribe a fixed smoothing strength that ignores feature cardinality, sample size, and class imbalance, inducing a non-vanishing bias on modern high-cardinality tabular data.
arXiv:2607. 22889v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Learning the natural parameters $z \in \mathbb{R}^n$ of discrete distributions $\mu_z$ from independent samples constrained to a subset $S \subseteq \{0,1\}^n$ is a foundational challenge in high-dimensional statistics.
The paper introduces a leave‑a‑window‑out estimator for next‑token functionals, such as the surprise probability and test error, in sequences of random variables. By deleting a window of length τ after each index, the estimator generalizes leave‑one‑out and achieves parametric error decay for stationary β‑mixing processes that admit a Marton coupling. The authors provide both upper bounds and a minimax lower bound for the surprise probability, and demonstrate through simulations that their method outperforms traditional baselines on Markov, moving‑average, and autoregressive processes.
Suppose we observe the first $n$ points of a sequence of random variables having length $n+1$, and wish to estimate a functional of the unobserved final point and the empirical measure of the $n$ obse...
arXiv:2409. 09903v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Softmax Mixture Models (SMMs) are discrete $K$-component mixture models for the probabilities of selecting one of $p$ candidate feature vectors $X_1,\ldots,X_p\in\mathbb{R}^L$ in heterogeneous populations and are widely used in econometrics and scientific applications.
arXiv:2609. 20749v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Location estimation exhibits markedly different finite-sample behavior across noise distributions: regular families typically yield root-\(n\) rates, whereas compactly supported laws may admit faster, boundary-driven rates.
arXiv:2607.10912v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: 3D Gaussian Splatting represents scenes as finite mixtures of anisotropic Gaussians whose number of components $K$ is set by heuristic density cont...
arXiv:2608. 09074v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop a new approach to Personalized Federated Learning across heterogeneous clients using Nonparametric Empirical Bayes (NPEB).
arXiv:2509. 22879v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Mixture models, such as Gaussian mixture models, are widely used in machine learning to represent complex data distributions.