Aurora‑X is a billion‑parameter time‑series foundation model designed for extreme forecasting tasks. It employs a progressive curriculum that starts with channel‑independent pretraining, then adds cross‑variable dependencies, variable context and horizon lengths, and optional future covariates during mid‑training. A variable‑resolution post‑training stage allows adjustable temporal spans per token at inference, while a pattern‑guided mixture‑of‑experts expands capacity through sparse activation and expert specialization. An implicit quantile network head predicts arbitrary quantiles, enhancing probabilistic forecasting flexibility. Experiments on GIFT‑Eval, TIME, FEV‑Bench, TFB, and DAG‑Bench show state‑of‑the‑art performance against both pretrained TSFMs and task‑specific supervised models.
By Xingjian Wu, Chenjuan Guo, Xiangfei Qiu, Zhigang Hu, Hanyin Cheng, Peng Chen, Yang Shu, Jilin Hu, Bin Yang
arXiv:2602. 12147v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation.
By Zhongzheng Qiao, Sheng Pan, Anni Wang, Viktoriya Zhukova, Yong Liu, Xudong Jiang, Qingsong Wen, Mingsheng Long, Ming Jin, Chenghao Liu
The paper introduces PaCTS, a method that generates instance‑adaptive latent prompts—continuous embedding tokens—to provide compact contextual information for frozen time‑series foundation models (TSFMs). These prompts are constructed from instance‑specific global statistics and refined with segment‑level temporal data, enabling the model to capture both global characteristics and local temporal variations. Experiments show that PaCTS improves forecasting performance across various context lengths and model architectures, often outperforming the same backbone with double the context while reducing inference computation, and it also offers stronger improvements and better out‑of‑distribution generalization compared to weight‑space adaptation methods.
NeST is a framework that adapts large language models (LLMs) for continuous time‑series forecasting by creating neighborhood‑aware text prototypes and aligning them with temporal representations through a nearest‑neighbor contrastive objective. It retrieves the most relevant prototypes and uses them to conditionally modulate time‑series features, enabling more effective integration of textual and temporal information. Experiments show that NeST outperforms state‑of‑the‑art methods on eight benchmarks, reduces MSE by 1.2% for long‑term forecasting, improves zero‑shot forecasting by 4.9%, and boosts R² by 3.3% on a real‑world photovoltaic power forecasting task.
By Jayanie Bogahawatte, Sachith Seneviratne, Maneesha Perera, Saman Halgamuge
TimeBraid is a family of unified models that combine pretrained language models with pretrained time‑series foundation models using interleaved global residual attention layers. The models inherit instruction following, reasoning, and continuous‑signal perception, fusing both modalities into a shared representation space for understanding and generation. The design focuses on aligning representation spaces, grounding language in temporal structure, balancing understanding with generation, and maintaining stable joint optimization, supported by 2.2 M curated series‑text pairs and 4.9 M instruction‑tuning samples. Across diverse benchmarks, TimeBraid competes with larger general‑purpose and task‑specific models.
By Xinyue Wang, Jiacheng Pang, Kun Zhou, Kexin Zhang, Defu Cao, Fan Feng, Faisal, Songyao Jin, Yan Liu, Biwei Huang
arXiv:2605.01418v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Time-series data are inherently multiscale, spanning diverse temporal granularities from coarse trends to fine-scale dynamics. However, existing ti...
By Seokhyun Lee, Jaeho Kim, Changjun Oh, Mihaela van der Schaar, Changhee Lee
arXiv:2606. 15172v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Synthesizing realistic time series with generative models has wide-ranging applications in real-world scenarios.
By Zihao Yao, Qi Zheng, Jiankai Zuo, Yaying Zhang
arXiv:2606. 05264v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Training robust multivariate time series forecasting models requires large, diverse corpora, yet many real-world domains provide only a handful of observed sequences.
By Moulik Gupta (Birla AI Labs), Dhruv Kumar (Birla AI Labs, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani), Murari Mandal (Birla AI Labs, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology), Saurabh Deshpande (Birla AI Labs)
arXiv:2606. 08601v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated impressive potential for time series forecasting.
By Peiliang Gong, Emadeldeen Eldele, Chenyu Liu, Ziyu Jia, Yi Ding, Xinliang Zhou, Lianchao Gu, Qi Zhu, Yang Liu, Daoqiang Zhang, Xiaoli Li
arXiv:2603. 12451v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Context-aided forecasting (CAF) holds promise for integrating domain knowledge and forward-looking information, enabling AI systems to surpass traditional statistical methods.
By Vincent Zhihao Zheng, \'Etienne Marcotte, Arjun Ashok, Andrew Robert Williams, Lijun Sun, Alexandre Drouin, Valentina Zantedeschi
arXiv:2606. 08578v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recently, large time series models (LTSMs) have gained increasing attention due to their similarities to large language models, including flexible context length, scalability, and task generality, outperforming advanced task-specific models.
By Xu Zhang, Peang Wang, Wei Wang
arXiv:2603. 15506v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We argue that the current practice of evaluating AI/ML time-series forecasting models, predominantly on benchmarks characterized by strong, persistent periodicities and seasonalities, obscures real progress by overlooking the performance of efficient classical methods.
By Raeid Saqur, Christoph Bergmeir, Blanka Horvath, Daniel Schmidt, Frank Rudzicz, Terry Lyons