arXiv:2606. 03549v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) for Random Forest faces a specific difficulty in tuning the number of trees: the predictive score typically improves monotonically with ensemble size, so standard methods such as Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) and Hyperband require a predefined search range and often drive the estimate toward its right boundary.
By Vadim Porvatov, Andrey Dukhovny, Andrey Lange
Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) for Random Forest faces a specific difficulty in tuning the number of trees: the predictive score typically improves monotonically with ensemble size, so standard methods such as Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) and Hyperband require a predefined search range and often drive the estimate toward its right boundary. Early-stopping strategies avoid fixing such a range, but can be sensitive to score noise and prone to premature stopping.
arXiv:2603. 12507v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Minimising a spectral risk objective, defined as a weighted combination of expected cost and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), is challenging when the uncertainty distribution is decision-dependent, making both surrogate modelling and simulation-based ranking sensitive to tail estimation error.
By Marcell T. Kurbucz
arXiv:2608. 17841v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-armed bandit algorithms are evaluated by regret, yet comparable regret can coexist with different allocations across independent runs.
By Kaifei Wang, Yinyu Ye, Han Zhong
arXiv:2607. 23721v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Distributional random forests replace mean-based CART splitting with criteria that compare the full conditional response distribution in candidate children.
By Silas Koemen
arXiv:2607. 07951v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Wildfire smoke events produce extreme PM$_{2.
By Yongcan Huang, Li Jiang, Ze Yu Liu
arXiv:2607. 18559v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Gaussian graphical model selection is usually studied under independent sampling, but in many applications the data arise as a single trajectory of a dependent stochastic process.
By Vignesh Tirukkonda, Gautam Dasarathy
arXiv:2608. 03111v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Double descent is commonly studied by scaling an explicit capacity parameter, such as neural-network width.
By Ryuichi Kanoh
arXiv:2606. 18778v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Online learning in non-stationary streams is often formulated as tracking a point estimate, but many applications require predicting the full data-generating distribution.
By Navyansh Mahla, Prateek Chanda, Ganesh Ramakrishnan
arXiv:2512. 22284v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Nature rarely reveals her secrets bluntly, yet in the Fibonacci sequence she grants us a glimpse of her quiet architecture of growth, harmony, and recursive stability \citep{Koshy2001Fibonacci, Livio2002GoldenRatio}.
By Ernest Fokou\'e
arXiv:2602. 06014v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Thompson sampling (TS) is widely used for stochastic multi-armed bandits, yet its inferential properties under adaptive data collection are subtle.
By Shunxing Yan, Han Zhong
arXiv:2602. 22432v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Gradient-boosted decision trees are among the strongest off-the-shelf predictors for tabular regression, but point predictions alone do not quantify uncertainty.
By Vagner Santos, Victor Coscrato, Luben Cabezas, Rafael Izbicki, Thiago Ramos