arXiv Machine Learning

Validity Threats for Foundation Model Research

arXiv:2606. 05029v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Controlled experiments are the backbone of machine learning research, but at the scale of modern foundation models, they have become prohibitively expensive.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 11

Demystifying Prediction Powered Inference

arXiv:2601. 20819v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning predictions are increasingly used to supplement incomplete or costly-to-measure outcomes in fields such as biomedical research, environmental science, and social science.

By Yilin Song, Dan M. Kluger, Harsh Parikh, Tian Gu
arXiv AI
Aug 11

From Trajectories to Evidence: Auditable Experimental Records for Industrial Research Agents

arXiv:2608. 05235v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Research agents increasingly conduct multi-round machine-learning experiments in industrial recommendation settings and retain the resulting trajectories to guide later decisions.

By Zijie Zhuang, Changxin Lao, Pengbo Xu, Hanwen Xu, Ruochen Yang, Yingzhi He, Peng Zhang, Jiangxia Cao, Yusheng Huang, Guohong Mu, Jian Liang, Ruiming Tang, Shuang Yang, Zhaojie Liu, Wenwu Ou, Kun Gai
arXiv AI
Jun 24

A Survey on Federated Causal Discovery and Inference

arXiv:2606. 23741v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal reasoning, which encompasses the discovery of causal structures and the inference of causal effects, is fundamental to data-driven decision making.

By Xianjie Guo, Yuwei Wang, Guodu Xiang, Xiaoli Tang, Kui Yu, Han Yu, Qiang Yang
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4

When May a Model Replace the Experiment? Audits, Licenses, and the Price of Trust in Surrogate-Driven Design

arXiv:2608. 01378v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Design campaigns in chemistry, materials science, and machine learning share a bottleneck: determining how good a candidate truly is requires an expensive evaluation - an experiment, a first-principles simulation, or a full training run.

By Shuangxiu (Max), Ma (Zachary), Wenhe (Zachary), Zhao
arXiv AI
Jul 15

A Threshold Exceedance Framework for CBRN Uplift Evaluation in Frontier Language Models

arXiv:2607. 12200v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As frontier language models advance, policymakers and model developers need methods for assessing whether model access materially increases a non-expert actor's ability to plan high-consequence Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) misuse relative to public tools alone.

By Rahul Gupta, Abhinav Mohanty, Payal Motwani, Venkatesh Saligrama, Satyapriya Krishna, Connor Harris, Gary Anthony Ackerman, Brandon Behlendorf, Tom Hobson, Theodore Wilson, Spyros Matsoukas