arXiv AI

A Machine-Learned Comorbidity Index

arXiv:2606. 17450v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Traditional comorbidity scores (e.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 3

What Is Missing in Surgical Risk Stratification and Outcome Prediction: A Scoping Review of End-to-End Machine Learning Approaches

arXiv:2607. 29090v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Postoperative adverse events, including mortality and morbidity, remain a major global burden, many of which are preventable through early identification of high-risk patients and targeted perioperative care.

By Yizhi Dong, Yuhe Ke, Hairil Rizal Abdullah, Yucheng Xing, Kevan Kai Bing Teo, Ling Huang, Mengling Feng
arXiv AI
Jun 2

Retrieval-aligned Tabular Foundation Models Enable Robust Clinical Risk Prediction in Electronic Health Records Under Real-world Constraints

arXiv:2604. 01841v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Clinical prediction from structured electronic health records (EHRs) is challenging due to high dimensionality, heterogeneity, class imbalance, and distribution shift.

By Minh-Khoi Pham, Thang-Long Nguyen Ho, Thao Thi Phuong Dao, Tai Tan Mai, Minh-Triet Tran, Marie E. Ward, Una Geary, Rob Brennan, Nick McDonald, Martin Crane, Marija Bezbradica
arXiv AI
Jul 22

Trajectory-Aware Clinical Risk Prediction via Severity-Grounded Knowledge Graphs and Retrieval-Augmented Generation

arXiv:2607. 18270v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While Electronic Health Records (EHRs) offer a wealth of clinical data, effectively augmenting a patient's records with heterogeneous external knowledge to predict the patient's clinical risk remains a significant challenge.

By Kyunghoon Jeon, Youmin Ko, Woohwan Jung, Hyunjoon Kim
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4

xMICD: Explainable Representation of Multiple ICD Codes

arXiv:2608. 00935v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Electronic Health Records (EHRs) are widely used for clinical risk prediction using machine learning.

By Pat Vatiwutipong, Kumkup Keeratisiwakul, Albert Phuoc Kien Van Truong, Nutcha Yodrabum, Wasin Pansiritanachot, Marvin N. Wright, Thanapon Noraset
arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 25

Scaling Electronic Health Record Foundation Models for Population Health Management

The paper introduces Scaling Electronic Health Record Foundation Models for Population Health Management, a large‑scale model trained on billions of medical events from over 5 million patients in Taiwan and the United States. By aligning ICD codes across different health systems, the model achieves strong scaling and generalization across 11 chronic disease prediction tasks, outperforming tree‑based, general, and biomedical language models with high sensitivity at 99% specificity. It also demonstrates superior few‑shot performance on the EHRShot benchmark and shows that cross‑system alignment provides a stronger pretraining signal than single‑site duplication in data‑limited scenarios.

By Liwen Sun, Hao-Ren Yao, Ophir Frieder, Xiang Qian, Chenyan Xiong
arXiv AI
Aug 28

Structured Evidence Routing for Incident Risk Prediction from Multimodal Longitudinal EHRs

The paper introduces structured evidence routing for incident risk prediction using multimodal longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). It proposes a router‑predictor‑reviewer workflow that condenses full patient records into compact summaries and targeted evidence slices, enabling a predictor to generate evidence‑linked risk assessments that a reviewer can critique. Experiments on five one‑year incident diagnosis tasks show that the method matches the AUROC of established supervised EHRSHOT baselines and remains competitive on AUPRC, while providing a patient‑specific evidence trail.

By Animesh Agarwal, Meysam Ghaffari, Nina Fatehi, Carlos Morato
arXiv AI
Sep 3

The Ceiling Is in the Channel: Auditing Learner Gaps and Measurement Frontiers in Clinical Prediction

The paper introduces a framework that distinguishes two causes of saturation in clinical prediction: a learner gap, where the model fails to use available information, and a measurement‑channel ceiling, where the recorded variables limit performance. It provides theoretical characterizations, finite‑sample diagnostics, and empirical audits across three large cohorts, showing that well‑tuned models approach the frontier while deficient learners leave large gaps. A PRISMA‑guided synthesis across 104 tasks reveals consistent channel‑level patterns, suggesting that improving the learner or the measurement channel can audit and potentially lift performance.

By Sayeed Shafayet Chowdhury, Nusrat Jahan, Snehasis Mukhopadhyay, Shiaofen Fang, Vijay R. Ramakrishnan
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 21

Explainable Transformer Models for Clinical Prediction Tasks on Structured Electronic Health Records

arXiv:2608. 20315v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predictive models over structured electronic health records (EHRs) remain central to machine learning for healthcare, but few have jointly emphasized quantitative laboratory information and interpretability with respect to input medical events.

By Jun Ni Du, Lukas Adamek, Maxim Kryukov, Flavio Dormont, Ziv Bar-Joseph, Sven Jager, Brandon Rufino
arXiv Computation and Language
3d ago

Large Language Models are Approximate Survival Estimators

arXiv:2609.38181v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Survival analysis estimates time-to-event outcomes from patient covariates and is widely used for medical risk assessment. Patients seeking prognostic...

By Juan M Zambrano Chaves, Peniel Argaw, Risa Ueno, Carlo Bifulco, Kristina Young, Rom Leidner, Tristan Naumann, Hoifung Poon