arXiv Statistics ML

Semiparametric Double Reinforcement Learning with Applications to Long-Term Causal Inference

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 24

Smart Exploration in Reinforcement Learning using Bounded Uncertainty Models

The paper introduces BUMEX, a reinforcement learning exploration strategy that leverages a set of prior models containing the true transition kernel and reward function. By optimizing over this model set, the method derives upper and lower bounds on the Q‑function to guide exploration, providing theoretical guarantees of convergence to the optimal policy. When the model set follows a bounded‑parameter MDP structure, the optimization becomes convex, enabling finite‑time convergence under mild assumptions and demonstrating accelerated learning in simulations.

By J. S. van Hulst, W. P. M. H. Heemels, D. J. Antunes
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 24

Reinforcement Learning for Continuous-Time Jump Markov Decision Processes with Applications to Network Dynamic Pricing

The paper introduces reinforcement learning for Continuous-Time Jump Markov Decision Processes (CTJMDPs) with general discrete state spaces and continuous/discrete actions. It develops entropy‑regularized continuous‑time control and establishes theoretical foundations for q‑learning in this setting, providing model‑free algorithms that outperform naive discretization. Numerical tests on network dynamic pricing demonstrate the method’s ability to learn near‑optimal policies and scale to large networks.

By Huiling Meng, Ningyuan Chen, Xuefeng Gao
arXiv Machine Learning
4d ago

Fitted Q-Evaluation without Bellman Completeness via Occupancy Weighting

The paper introduces occupancy-weighted Fitted Q-Evaluation (FQE), a regression-based off‑policy evaluation method that replaces the standard offline distribution weights with a target‑policy discounted occupancy ratio. This weighting aligns the projection norm with the target policy’s dynamics, restoring contraction of the Bellman operator and eliminating the need for Bellman completeness. The authors provide finite‑sample guarantees that separate iteration, statistical, approximation, and ratio‑estimation errors, and show that exact occupancy weighting combined with fitted occupancy‑ratio evaluation yields consistent estimation under coverage without requiring critic‑side completeness.

By Lars van der Laan, Nathan Kallus