arXiv:2507. 20975v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Operator models are regression algorithms between Banach spaces of functions.
arXiv:2606. 31915v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While conformal prediction provides a general framework for uncertainty quantification in predictive inference, its application is often limited by computational cost.
arXiv:2501.18060v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal inference provides a rigorous statistical framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, enabling well-calibrated pr...
arXiv:2603.23923v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution an...
SPACE is a conformal wrapper that creates ellipsoidal joint prediction regions for multivariate time‑series forecasts by estimating time‑local covariance directly from the current forecast sample cloud. It calibrates the region’s radius using a dynamic backward window‑selection scheme, avoiding reliance on historical residuals. Experiments on diverse datasets show that SPACE improves joint and rolling coverage, achieving better coverage‑efficiency tradeoffs than existing wrappers.
arXiv:2606. 03600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Standard conformal prediction (CP) procedures are typically formulated in terms of p-values, but reliance on p-values alone limits flexibility, for example, when combining dependent evidence across models or data splits.
arXiv:2607. 10008v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a new conformal prediction method that constructs calibrated prediction sets over collections of spatial events, such as tropical cyclone genesis and earthquake locations.
Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction (PI‑CP) embeds PDE residuals into the nonconformity score of split conformal prediction, yielding distribution‑free prediction intervals with provable coverage that adapt spatially to physics violations. The method demonstrates consistent 89‑91% coverage across six physics scenarios, outperforming MC Dropout and Deep Ensembles, while Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) achieve superior accuracy over CNN and DeepONet. Additionally, the authors prove that FNO’s translation equivariance limits its ability to solve PDEs with Dirichlet boundary conditions, and show that adding coordinate channels can reduce error by up to 63×.
arXiv:2511. 04275v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction has emerged as a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed coverage assuming only the exchangeability assumption.
arXiv:2610.00535v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty quantification is critical in scientific machine learning, where black-box, image-based models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes set...
arXiv:2609. 11073v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DRO) typically treats the conditional outcome law as fixed and uses ambiguity sets to capture estimation error.
arXiv:2508. 13362v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is well-suited for uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting due to its distribution-free coverage guarantees.
arXiv:2606. 09923v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Neural operators such as the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) have emerged as powerful surrogates for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), achieving speedups of several orders of magnitude over traditional numerical solvers.