arXiv:2608. 15198v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Parameter identification of stochastic dynamical systems driven by mixed noises is challenging due to intractable likelihood functions.
arXiv:2608. 05454v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic prediction heads in neural networks typically output either a Gaussian mixture or a single conformal region.
arXiv:2604. 06001v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Efficiently solving the Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) is central to analyzing complex parameterized stochastic systems.
arXiv:2510. 12744v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We develop a unified statistical framework for softmax-gated Gaussian mixture of experts (SGMoE) that addresses three long-standing obstacles in parameter estimation and model selection: (i) non-identifiability of gating parameters up to common translations, (ii) intrinsic gate-expert interactions that induce coupled differential relations in the likelihood, and (iii) the tight numerator-denominator coupling in the softmax-induced conditional density.
arXiv:2608. 09071v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forward uncertainty propagation in complex physical systems can induce structured covariance across field-valued outputs.
arXiv:2606. 13818v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This thesis investigates how Bayesian principles can deepen our understanding of modern deep learning systems.
The paper extends Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to handle simulators whose parameter spaces contain both discrete and continuous dimensions. It introduces an inference network that factorizes the joint posterior into discrete and continuous components, using an autoregressive classifier for the discrete part and a generative model for the continuous part, trained jointly with a single simulation-based objective. A diagnostic tool for assessing calibration of the mixed posterior is also proposed, and the method is shown to produce accurate, calibrated posteriors on toy and real scientific simulators.
arXiv:2607. 05025v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vibration-based damage identification in civil infrastructure is a challenging, ill-posed inverse problem due to measurement noise, sparse sensor arrays, and environmental variability.
arXiv:2607. 17018v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study distributionally robust linear chance-constrained problems in which uncertainty is modeled by a Gaussian mixture model (GMM).
The paper introduces a new variational inference framework that uses tangent transformations to handle strongly super‑Gaussian likelihoods across a wide range of probability models. By constructing tangent minorants of the log‑likelihood through convex duality, the method achieves conjugacy with Gaussian priors, enabling tractable inference where traditional approaches struggle. The authors provide algorithmic convergence guarantees and near‑parametric risk bounds, and demonstrate superior scalability and accuracy on both simulated and real‑world datasets compared to existing variational algorithms.
arXiv:2607. 06252v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many problems in science and engineering are difficult to model accurately, either due to unknown physical mechanisms, poorly quantified measurement uncertainty, or prohibitive computational costs of high-fidelity simulations.
arXiv:2506. 06584v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Learning Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning, with the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and its popular variant gradient EM being arguably the most widely used algorithms in practice.
arXiv:2609.00773v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: High-dimensional clustering is challenging when component distributions are both heavy-tailed and directionally asymmetric. We propose a deep skew-$t...